Financial time series including high frequency structures like jumps, spikes and stochastic volatility are usually modeled in an ad-hoc manner by stochastic differential equations together with Levy processes. Estimating the parameters and determining the jump size distributions do not have a precise and universally accepted method. Under these circumstances, complexities and confusions usually arise. This book, approaches to this issue from a very different angle through introducing an autocorrelation one process together with finite number of Fourier series terms. Introduction of Fourier series to estimate the dynamics of the process is not done in an ad-hoc manner or as done before in dealing with seasonality. Here the moving average is transformed to a “moving and fluctuating” average by the help of Fourier series. Instead of adding jump structures to the model which makes the parameter estimation quite cumbersome, our model in discrete time can easily be transformed to a well-known mean reverting continuous time process. Moreover, our alternative model turned out to be a quite powerful and accurate forecasting technique.

The determinants of local government performance have long been of interest, and have been empirically investigated in a number of recent studies. A general question in this area is: why have some local governments across the countries achieved high rates of performance whilst the others remained at lower levels? Evidence from the relevant literature indicates that some local governments or municipalities, particularly in developed countries, achieve very good performance. Others, in particular those from underdeveloped or developing, have very little or almost no performance.

This research empirically investigates the budgeting conditions in North Cyprus and evaluate how budgeting conditions vary from one municipality to the other in the five major municipalities; Lefkosa, Magusa, Girne, Guzelyurt and Iskele over the period 2004Q1 to 2012Q4. Two types of methodologies are conducted. First; it empirically investigates the determinants of local government deficit by using cointegration techniques. The Johansen co-integration and The Vector Error Correction model (VECM) are applied to test the effect of each element such as own-source revenue, grants, expenditures and debt services on the budget deficit. Second, the study test the convergence hypothesis if similar regions within the country converge to the same long-run steady state by considering five major Cypriot municipalities in the North Cyprus economy.

The results from the empirical analysis on budget deficit findings show that there is evidence of a long-run relationship between general deficit and its determinants. The evidence of causality is found from expenditure and debt to general deficit for Lefkosa municipality. There is unidirectional causality from grant and revenue through deficit for Magusa municipality. Third empirical analysis on convergence introduced that the municipalities with the lowest number of people per staff, commonly diverge from the group mean.

During the 19th century, British diplomacy towards the Ottoman Empire was based on rejuvenating and revitalising the administration system with a series of social and political reforms. Although British attitudes began to transform during the Near Eastern Crisis of 1876-8 and the Anglo-Ottoman alliance was interrupted, the policy changed dramatically on the eve of the First World War.Nonetheless, major events such as the Chanak Crisis in the British Cabinet, the occupation of Constantinople and Smyrna and finally the Turkish Nationalist Movementunder the leadership of Mustafa Kemal Ataturk effected the dynamics of Anglo-Ottoman relations. This book examines the ground of these policies and analyses how thisstorm was over in British foreign policies towards Turkey between 1918 and 1923.

Önsözden

Tüm bu çalışmalarımda gözlemlediğim ilk konu, teknolojik gelişmeler ve müşteri ihtiyaçları nedeni ile nakit yönetimi dünyasının hep dinamik olduğudur. İkinci konu ise, finansal okuryazarlık konusunda özellikle küçük işletmelere ve hane halkına yönelik çok fazla çalışma yapılması gerekliliğidir. Türkiye özelinde sermaye piyasalarının gelişimi adına, işletmelerin büyümesi ve sürdürülebilirliği adına nakit yönetiminin finansal yönetimin altındaki en önemli başlık olduğu kanaatindeyim. Borsa İstanbul’un toplam piyasa değerinin Facebook’un piyasa değerinden düşük olmasının nedeni Türkiye’deki işletmelerin, bankacılık sistemi dâhil, ölçeğinin küçük kalmasıdır. Bunun nedeni ise, başta KOBİ’lerde finansal yönetim ve nakit yönetimi esaslarına olan hâkimiyetin düşüklüğüdür. Uluslarararası bir finans merkezi olmak isteyen İstanbul’un Avusturya İktisat Okulu, Wharton, Harvard Business School, London School of Economics gibi bir iktisadi yönetim ekolü (doktrini, okulu) olması gerekliliğine inancım doğrultusunda, bu ilk kitabımda deneyimlerimden hareketle nakit yönetiminin önemini aktarmaya çalıştım

II. Meşrutiyet (1908-1918) ve dönemin temel aktörü Osmanlı İttihat ve Terakki Cemiyeti Cumhuriyet’e geçişte pek çok siyasi kurum, örgüt ve deneyim için bir laboratuar sağlamıştı. Modern siyasi kurumlar, çok partili hayat ve hatta etnik unsurlar arası birliği sürdürme denemeleri bu dönemde uygulamaya kondu. Siyasi kurum ve kadrolar, sağ-sol yönelimlerin sınırları, milliyetçilikteki dışlayıcı çizgilerin temel doğrultusu o dönemde belirginleşti. Bu deneyim olumlu ve olumsuz sonuçları ile Cumhuriyet’e aktarıldı.

Erken Cumhuriyet ile kastedilen 1923-50 arası yıllar, Cumhuriyet’in kurucusu Atatürk ile sonrası Milli Şef dönemlerine ayrılabilir. Aynı dönemi ülke içi siyaset ve dünya ile ilişkileri çok etkilediği için, 1929 krizi ile de ayırmak ve II. Dünya Savaşı sonuna kadar uzatmak mümkün görünüyor.

Mete Çetik’in çeşitli özgün yazı ve kitap eleştirilerinin derlendiği bu kitapta, II. Meşrutiyet döneminin genel siyasi ortamı, Makedon hareketi liderleri, İttihatçıların siyasi tiyatro etkinlikleri gibi başlıklar konu edilerek, farklı açılardan ele alınmaya çalışılıyor.

Erken Cumhuriyet dönemi üzerine ise, genel siyasi ortam, milliyetçilik, ırkçılık, Soğuk Savaş, üniversite tasfiyeleri ve Atatürk’ü konu eden özgün yazı ve kitap eleştirileri yer alıyor.

Underlying all these questions of right is the question how they are to be secured and maintained. By enforcing the responsibility of the executive and legislature to the community as a whole? Such is the general answer, and it indicates one of the lines of connection between the general theory of liberty and the doctrine of universal suffrage and the sovereignty of the people. The answer, however, does not meet all the possibilities of the case. The people as a whole might be careless of their rights and incapable of managing them. They might be set on the conquest of others, the expropriation of the rich, or on any form of collective tyranny or folly. It is perfectly possible that from the point of view of general liberty and social progress a limited franchise might give better results than one that is more extended. Even in this country it is a tenable view that the extension of the suffrage in 1884 tended for some years to arrest the development of liberty in various directions. On what theory does the principle of popular sovereignty rest, and within what limits does it hold good? Is it a part of the general principles of liberty and equality, or are other ideas involved? These are among the questions which we shall have to examine.

1. T. HOBHOUSE – 1911