During the 19th century, British diplomacy towards the Ottoman Empire was based on rejuvenating and revitalising the administration system with a series of social and political reforms. Although British attitudes began to transform during the Near Eastern Crisis of 1876-8 and the Anglo-Ottoman alliance was interrupted, the policy changed dramatically on the eve of the First World War.Nonetheless, major events such as the Chanak Crisis in the British Cabinet, the occupation of Constantinople and Smyrna and finally the Turkish Nationalist Movementunder the leadership of Mustafa Kemal Ataturk effected the dynamics of Anglo-Ottoman relations. This book examines the ground of these policies and analyses how thisstorm was over in British foreign policies towards Turkey between 1918 and 1923.

Financial time series including high frequency structures like jumps, spikes and stochastic volatility are usually modeled in an ad-hoc manner by stochastic differential equations together with Levy processes. Estimating the parameters and determining the jump size distributions do not have a precise and universally accepted method. Under these circumstances, complexities and confusions usually arise. This book, approaches to this issue from a very different angle through introducing an autocorrelation one process together with finite number of Fourier series terms. Introduction of Fourier series to estimate the dynamics of the process is not done in an ad-hoc manner or as done before in dealing with seasonality. Here the moving average is transformed to a “moving and fluctuating” average by the help of Fourier series. Instead of adding jump structures to the model which makes the parameter estimation quite cumbersome, our model in discrete time can easily be transformed to a well-known mean reverting continuous time process. Moreover, our alternative model turned out to be a quite powerful and accurate forecasting technique.

Bu çalışmada, küresel spot doğal gaz piyasaları incelenerek, Türkiye’de yaşanan serbestleşme sürecinde, spot doğal gaz piyasasındaki fiyatların hangi faktörlerden etkilenebileceği belirlenmeye, arz ve fiyat güvenliği için neler yapılması gerektiği hakkında öneriler getirilmeye çalışılmıştır.