Financial time series including high frequency structures like jumps, spikes and stochastic volatility are usually modeled in an ad-hoc manner by stochastic differential equations together with Levy processes. Estimating the parameters and determining the jump size distributions do not have a precise and universally accepted method. Under these circumstances, complexities and confusions usually arise. This book, approaches to this issue from a very different angle through introducing an autocorrelation one process together with finite number of Fourier series terms. Introduction of Fourier series to estimate the dynamics of the process is not done in an ad-hoc manner or as done before in dealing with seasonality. Here the moving average is transformed to a “moving and fluctuating” average by the help of Fourier series. Instead of adding jump structures to the model which makes the parameter estimation quite cumbersome, our model in discrete time can easily be transformed to a well-known mean reverting continuous time process. Moreover, our alternative model turned out to be a quite powerful and accurate forecasting technique.

ÖNSÖZ’den

Yönetimde karar verme günümüzde otel işletmeleri için de birinci derecede önem taşıyan bir konu haline gelmiştir. Nitekim bazı bilim insanları, yönetim ile karar verme sürecini, eş anlamda tutacak kadar ileri gitmişlerdir. Çünkü yönetici, yönetimdeki planlama, örgütleme, yöneltme, koordinasyon ve denetim işlevlerini yerine getirirken sürekli bir biçimde karar alma durumundadır. Diğer bir ifade ile karar verme, ayrı bir yönetim faaliyeti olmaktan çok, bütün yönetim faaliyetlerine temel teşkil eden bir unsurdur. Karar verme, bir sorunun çözümüne ilişkin olası yollardan en uygun olanın seçilmesi olarak tanımlanabilir. Herhangi bir konuda karar verme yönetimin özüdür, esasıdır.

Yönetim sürecinin niteliği karar verme süreci tarafından belirlenir. Yönetim sürecinin tüm diğer nitelikleri karar vermeye bağlıdır; karar verme ile örülmüş, bütünleşmiştir. Karar vermek, sorunu çözmek için yöneticinin yargıda bulunmasıdır. Yönetim, kararla başlar, kararla biter.

Globalization and related technological developments have increased competition and put organizations in a struggle to survive in an extremely difficult market condition. Organizations adopt their technologies and infrastructures to today’s conditions to gain a sustainable competitive advantage and maintain their existence. However, all these efforts of organizations are easily imitated by rival companies and may cause the loss of competitive advantage.

The resource-based view provides additional information that strategic human resource is the scarce, valuable, inimitable and non-substitutable resources of organizations, thus enabling them to gain a competitive advantage. According to this view, the competitive advantage of the organization is achieved by combining valuable internal resources. Nowadays, sustainable competitive advantage is provided not by environmental factors or physical capital but by human capital (employees) efficiency. In this context, the attitudes and behaviors of employees who make up human resources are important for their organizational success. Many studies emphasize that positive attitudes and behaviors (e.g. innovative work behavior, work engagement, job satisfaction) in employees have important contributions to the success of the organization, while similarly negative attitudes and behaviors (e.g. organizational silence, turnover intention) are one of the main reasons for the failure of the organization.

In our book, literature has been created on the definition, antecedents, and organizational results of new and current concepts that are newly conceptualized in the literature and are still in their infancy. It is considered that this cumulative literature within the book will be a source for future studies on these subjects and will provide important insights for practitioners.