Understanding the behavior of asset prices is essential in evaluating investment decisions so that practitioners and academics have been investigating what assets are worth and whether asset prices are predictable. The degree of stock return predictability is a statistical concept and totally an empirical issue. In this study, we conduct an empirical application on the equity premium forecastability concept. We consider both macroeconomic and technical indicators in order to predict the equity risk premiums of selected thirteen stock markets including Belgium, Greece, Malaysia, Mexico, Portugal, Spain, Taiwan, Turkey, Brazil, Hong-Kong, India, Russia, and South Africa. Incorporating information from all indicators including domestic and foreign macroeconomic indicators, oil price changes, and technical indicators provides in-sample fitting gains. Out-of-sample forecasting results show that the strategy of combining forecasts provides out-of-sample gains. Portfolio performance analyses suggests following the forecasts generated by the proposed models to obtain positive returns over the buy-and-hold strategy.

Economic cybercrime is one of the unwelcomed consequences of unprecedented intrusion of the Internet in our daily lives. Academic interest in understanding the causes and adverse impacts of cybercrime is growing. Opportunity perspective, which perceives individuals’ daily routines and lifestyles as the primary facilitator of victimization, has been widely applied as a theoretical and conceptual framework in cybercrime victimization research. However, this approach put the responsibility of the victimization on victims explicitly, which hampers the application of crime prevention and reduction efforts. This book presents the Contextual Vulnerabilities approach based on the significant findings of a doctoral study conducted at Durham University in the United Kingdom. Contextual vulnerabilities approach posits that cybercrime victimization is the outcome of the confluence of contextual factors that are mostly beyond victims’ control. This approach presumes that controlling individual (micro-level), macro-level and socio-cultural vulnerabilities may prevent cybercrime victimization. Though the preliminary goal of this book is to provide a new theoretical perspective to scholars researching victimization in cyberspace, I hope the wider audience would find it informative.

Yazar bu kitapta Orta Doğu, Orta Asya ve Afrika’daki birçok kronik sorunu masaya yatırmış, derinden irdelemiş, konu hakkında bilgiler sunmuş ve dönem dönem var olan problemlere çözüm olarak kendi şahsi yorumlarını da eklemiştir. Söz konusu bu büyük coğrafyadaki sorunların, çatışmaların, gelişmelerin tarihsel dönüşüm ve toplumsal değişimlerin akademik prensiplere uygunluğunun yanı sıra açıklamalarını da sade bir üslupla dile getirmesi, başta öğrencilerimiz olmak üzere bölgedeki gelişmelere ilgi duyanların başvuracağı değerli bir kaynak haline getirmiştir.

Prof. Dr. Bayram KAYA